After the Cincinnati Bengals bottomed out in 2019 at 2-14, they were set in place to draft their next franchise quarterback Joe Burrow in the 2020 NFL Draft. The team quickly saw improvements in their offense that 2020 season and made big improvements despite losing Burrow in Week 11 to an ACL injury. The following year in 2021, Cincinnati not only catapulted to a division title, but they shocked everyone and made a long playoff run that resulted in a Super Bowl berth. Even though the Bengals would go on to lose that Super Bowl to the Los Angeles Rams, the team has been in contention since getting their franchise quarterback which was set up by an abysmal two-win season.
The New England Patriots look to have the same type of long-term success after having their worst season in the 21st century, finishing at 4-13 and capturing the number three overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, which they used to pick Drake Maye, who the team and fanbase alike hopes to be the next Burrow-esque franchise savior. Unlike Burrow, Maye will officially not be the team’s Week One starter in his rookie campaign and for the time being will be holding a clipboard on the sideline, until if and when he is needed to come under center at some point this season, which is very possible. Maye at just 22 years of age has tremendous upside and talent but will need to develop and show he can compete professionally for the Patriots to see greener pastures as a franchise. 2024 is looking to be a rebuilding year for the Patriots who happen to play in a division with three other teams that can be considered contenders for both the AFC East and representing the AFC conference in the Super Bowl.
Where Will the Patriots Finish in the AFC East?
4th place: New England Patriots
There should be many variants regarding how analysts and fans rank and project the top three rankings in the division between the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, and Buffalo Bills. As for the Pats with all the points mentioned before, it should be no surprise to anybody that they are the consensus pick to finish last in the AFC East. Maye will be mentored by veteran backup Jacoby Brissett who is easily the worst starting quarterback in the division, which seems to be a good move as the Patriots’ offense still is deficient in a lot of key areas, making it a difficult situation for a young quarterback to develop in. The offensive line is still suspect in both pass and run blocking, and the receiving core doesn’t have a bona fide established playmaker. Javon Baker and Jalynn Polk will both be under the microscope to see how they develop as pass-catching options, and Demario Douglas is a nice gadget type of player who can surprise defenses from time to time, but all they are at the moment are experiments for the offense.
That isn’t to say Patriots fans won’t have anything to hang their hat on this upcoming season as the defense even without Matthew Judon still has tremendous upside. Though it is unfortunate that Christian Barmore has blood clots and is inactive for the time being, Christian Gonzalez will be back from injury and primed to be a stud at cornerback. The defense also features good players all around such as Jabrill Peppers, Joshua Uche, and Marcus Jones to name a few. This is a defense that if kept intact can be handsomely complimented by an improved offense and as a result lead to team success overall. As presently constructed, however, this feels like a team that finishes one or two games better than they did the year before at best, even if they are overall on the right trajectory.
Record Prediction: 6-11
3rd Place: Miami Dolphins
The team that finishes one place above the Pats but with a wide record margin is looking to be the team that led the division for most of last season before ultimately falling apart and letting the crown slip away down the final stretch to the Bills. The Dolphins are a team on paper that can easily win the division and compete for a Super Bowl title, with a dynamic offense that is spearheaded by a speedy duo at receiver with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and an equally electric backfield with Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane. Last year’s passing yards leader Tua Tagavailoa leads the charge at quarterback and has arguably the best offensive line in the division protecting him.
That said, the Dolphins will be looking to see improvements on the defensive side of things as that side of the ball was their glaring weakness last year and ultimately cost them in a few games. They added former pro-bowl safety Jordan Poyer to a secondary that already features Jalen Ramsey and drafted linebacker Chop Robinson with the 21st overall pick in this year’s draft. It will also be the core’s first year under defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver who hopes to be the leader this unit needs. The question lies will whether the defense be improved enough to where they aren’t the team’s Achilles heel. Will they be able to hold up and help the team overtake the Bills for the division title?
The Dolphins are certainly a team that has the potential to make noise and finish atop the AFC East with the talent that is spread throughout the roster, however, Tua is still the team’s quarterback and hasn’t yet shown the ability to carry the team on his back and deliver when the competition rises and things get tight. That question combined with Miami’s propensity to be inconsistent in the latter stretch of the regular season after strong starts under Mike McDaniel drops them in this ranking.
Record Prediction: 9-8
2nd Place: New York Jets
The less said about last season’s outcome the better for Jets fans who are hoping the team can finally rise above the quarterback doldrums’ they’ve suffered over the past several decades. Hopefully, Aaron Rodgers lasts far more than the four snaps he played in 2023 and helps Gang Green reach their full potential, which is extremely high. Looking at the players that the Jets have accumulated over the past three seasons, this could arguably be the best roster this organization has ever had. The roster includes depth and star power on both sides of the ball with an aging but future first ballot hall of fame quarterback at the helm and an improved offensive line which was their biggest weakness outside of quarterback last year. The defense should still be an elite unit with Quinnen Williams set to wreak havoc on offensive lines, complimented by other first-round talents like Javon Kinlaw, Solomon Thomas, and Takkarist McKinley. The linebacking core is stacked with pro bowlers C.J. Moseley, Jermaine Johnson, and Quincy Williams, making their front seven unit one of the most feared in the NFL. The biggest question lies in the secondary depth as outside of Sauce Gardner, there isn’t much else from a talent perspective around him. The Jets should still be an outstanding unit on defense, especially if the offense manages to be more efficient and stay on the field longer.
Offensively the Jets made improvements on the offensive line with additions like Tyron Smith and drafting Olu Fashanu in the first round, but how improved are they is the question. Mike Williams a great 50/50 ball catcher was also added to the receiving core adding more depth and explosiveness. Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard are still there, with Wilson being an excellent young receiver and Lazard having past chemistry with each other in Green Bay. Speaking of chemistry, Rodgers won two consecutive MVP awards under offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, indicating those two are a good match. Breece Hall is set for a breakout season entering his third year in the league, having shown a lot of potential in his first two years.
The biggest deciding factor for the Jets this season is how good Rodgers ends up being at 41 years old back from injury. Tom Brady at 43 years old went on a deep playoff run with the Buccaneers and ultimately won a Super Bowl. If Rodgers can show he still has at least a couple of good years left in him, there’s no reason with this supporting cast that he shouldn’t do the same thing or something similar. Will the Jets’ offensive line hold up well enough to where Rodgers can accomplish these things is also a legitimate question. Will Hackett’s offensive philosophy result in an offense that moves the ball down the field consistently is another. But the Jets are a team that managed to win seven games with the likes of Zach Wilson and Trevor Siemian in 2023 and has improved at quarterback and other areas on the roster. That combined with the aforementioned questions, makes this feel like a team that makes the playoffs but doesn’t finish quite at the top of the AFC East.
Record Prediction: 11-6
1st Place: Buffalo Bills
The team that has won the AFC East the last four seasons is projected to win it for a fifth time in this ranking despite some of the transgressions the roster has gone through in the 2024 offseason. Looking at some of the departures this team has faced such as Poyer, Micah Hyde, Tredavious White, Stefon Diggs, etc, some have the Bills being dethroned without second thought or analysis. What separates the Bills from the rest of the division and keeps them atop the projections is their top three quarterback in the league Josh Allen. Last season, Allen was the main reason this team went from a 6-6 record to winning their last five games of the regular season, winning the AFC East title, and then ultimately having their typical all-too-familiar playoff choke job against Kansas City.
If the Bills want to keep seeing the success they have been in the Sean McDermott-coached era, Allen needs to continue producing at a top-tier quarterback level, because there are questions all over the roster. There are new faces to the receiving core to replace Diggs and Davis with second-round draft choices Keon Coleman, Marques Valdez-Scantling, and Curtis Samuel. Khalil Shakir is still in place with those newly added weapons as well as Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox at tight end. This isn’t a bad receiving core per se but the question lies if Coleman will end up becoming that go-to guy they expect him to be, and if anybody else can end up being that caliber of receiver. Like the Patriots, this is a team without an established true number-one receiver which can end up hindering Allen’s abilities in the passing game. James Cook should still be a bright spot in the team’s running game and could be due for the big year which would take a lot of the pressure off of Allen having to both throw and run himself.
On defense, the Bills should still be a solid unit under McDermott’s coaching. Taron Johnson and Rasul Douglas are both solid corners and Mike Edwards was a good pickup at safety from Kansas City How well will they replace what they lost with Poyer, White, and Hyde remains to be seen. Matt Milano unfortunately suffered a torn biceps in practice ending his season which is a big loss for the linebacking core that is already thin. Ed Oliver and Gregory Rousseau are still excellent players on the defensive line and should still make an impact on the defense.
When looking at the Bills, while there isn’t much to ride home about, especially with the offseason they’ve had, they still have the advantage at quarterback over the rest of the division, and McDermott is likely still the best coach in the division from a defensive and structural standpoint. Having both McDermott and Allen back also gives the Bills an advantage in continuity over the rest of the AFC East, having spent the most amount of time together on the same team. Because of that, the Bills have the least amount of questions in the most important areas on the roster and staff and while they may not be projected to do much in the playoffs, they are still the safest bet to win a tough division.
Record Prediction: 12-5
Main Image: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images
