The 2023 Seattle Mariners O/U win total has been set at 86.5 per FanDuel. A fairly high number in regard to previous Mariners teams. However, the 2023 Mariners are not like previous teams. Fresh off their first postseason birth in 20 years, Seattle is out to prove they are here to stay.
It isn’t an easy task to repeat what they were able to accomplish last season. Playing in the same division as the defending World Series champs Houston Astros, who have proven to be the cream of the crop in the American League the last half dozen years. They also have to compete with the newly looked Texas Rangers, and the star power of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani in Los Angeles. The 2023 Seattle Mariners O/U doesn’t necessarily have to hit to get back to the postseason this year, but it sure would make life easier in the Pacific Northwest if it does.
How the 2023 Seattle Mariners O/U goes Over
Solid Starting Rotation
Seattle has a solid foundation in the starting pitching department heading into the new season. Let’s start with the ace Luis Castillo. Castillo came over from the Cincinnati Reds at last year’s trade deadline. In 11 starts with his new club, Castillo posted the highest K% on his fastball at 44%. Castello has very quietly been one of the top starting pitchers in baseball during his career. Being on a winning team should bring more light to him.
George Kirby comes off of a very impressive rookie campaign in 2022. Posting a 3.39 ERA/ 2.99 FIP in 25 starts, he gave Mariners fans a look into the bright future of one of the top prospects in the organization. Kirby spent a lot of time pitching inside the zone, which was a reason why he led the team in BB/9 (1.5). If he can work more off the edges of the strike zone, he has the stuff to be able to be a dominant pitcher.
Julio Rodríguez
A big reason the 2023 Seattle Mariners O/U is higher than in recent years, is the production in 2022 of Julio Rodríguez. In his rookie of the year season, Rodríguez shined bright. It was a slow start, a start that saw a 37% strikeout rate. Although that number may be a bit skewed based on Rodríguez having 14 called third strikes outside the strike zone, Rodríguez was able to turn it around. In the last six months of the season, the rising superstar slugged .297/.355/.550 to the tune of a 161 wRC+.
If the 2023 Seattle Mariners O/U is going to go over, this team needs Rodríguez right out of the gate. 28 home runs were a big reason for the success last year. Rodríguez has the makeup to be a 30/30 guy in the league. He has a good feel for the strike zone, can spray the ball all over the diamond, and has a solid presence on the base paths to be able to get in scoring position quickly. This Mariners’ team has power in their lineup. With Rodríguez typically being the leadoff hitter, it truly starts with him.
Summer Classic Luck
Like anything with betting, it’s always good to look at recent trends (at least it should be). The key to the 2023 Seattle Mariners O/U going over is right in the data. I looked into the last five MLB All-Star games dating back to 2017 (no ASG was played in 2020 due to Covid) and came away with enough confidence to throw my money on the 2023 Seattle Mariners O/U soaring past 86.5 wins.
In those last five All-Star Game seasons, the team who was hosting the summer classic in their respective year has gone over their team win total three of the five years. More importantly, the three overs have come in the last three seasons, (Los Angeles Dodgers-2022, Colorado Rockies-2021, Cleveland Guardians-2019). The 2017 All-Star Game was hosted by the Miami Marlins and they failed to reach their win total by one point game ( 77 wins, O/U 77.5).
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